Fitch ha tagliato il rating sovrano del Portogallo riducendolo a ‘AA’.
Perciò la ripresa in questo paese sarà molto più lenta che nelle altre nazioni, mettendo sotto pressione le finanze pubbliche nel medio termine.
Trichet , da parte sua, dichiara che l’Irlanda dovrebbe essere come il cavallo di Troia per la Grecia.
In his speech to Parliament, in front of four cats (15 MEPs), he argues that the ECB accept side with Greece after 2010, although in the presence of the reductive rating type 'BBB-'.
In practice, before the Economic Community of repeated settings in Germany, is opposed to an intervention, judged negative , led by the IMF that, in practice, would reduce the importance and sovereignty of financial the ECB itself will dominate the EU.
This, to paraphrase, in the area indicates that the recovery will be € uncertain, weak and very long.
We are in deflation.
Why Germany wants the IMF to be interested in the problems the Greeks? It fears the domino effect that is affecting various countries PIIGS , blast the whole bench, including virtuous nations, thereby charging these waste and inefficiency of the cicadas.
Union, they say, but not collapse!
Various European governments profess a tenuous optimism of GDP in 2010, a slight positive return around 1%.
Most experts, however, seems geared up for a GDP still negative, albeit fractional.
no coincidence that the $ is going strong on ' € , fell about 20 points from the pomp of 1.52.
The agreement France / Germany on Intervention in support of Greece is not painless, especially for those countries that will bear guarantees e costi dell’operazione.
L’accordo ( aiuti bilaterali volontari – sic!) prevede 2/ 3 a carico Ue/Bce e 1/ 3 a carico del Fmi, a fronte di un intervento previsto di 22 mld di €. Sempre che bastino e non se ne aggiungano altri, come probabile; perché pare inverosimile, come prevede l’accordo, che in circa 45 g la Grecia riesca a recuperare dai propri conti, o sul mercato, tale cifra.
Tradotto in numeri, in base alla partecipazione comunitaria, in carico alla Germania vi saranno about 4.2 billion €, 3.15 for France, for the 'Italy 2.75 and the rest borne by all other nations, however, have a minority, only a digit or fractional.
And England? Simple: nil, because it has retained the pound as their currency.
Now, if the IMF had been excluded from the transaction, each member state would bear as much as 50% more, as long as the Americans, a majority in the IMF, not boycott the agreement, given the reservations on the transaction by the chairman of the Fed
If rates in the U.S. and € area are very low, so even on securities that guarantee the public debt, this does not reflect in all EU countries.
Greece, for example, to attract capital and 6.30% . A rate, so to speak, than the enormous German, French and Italian to reach close to zero as net revenue.
There is an important economic equation that states: a high rate is always high risk. What risk? To be able to recover capital provided.
If rates should go up to curb a possible inflation, the costs to finance the public debt splashing upward, burning the country's GDP significantly.
Currently it is estimated that America and Britain could burn off 7 / 10% of GDP at average rates, and if even higher reaching 15%. Worrying data indicating that the recovery could be thwarted by the costs.
Comparing all our debt, and assuming, by way 'of example, an interest rate as the current greek, you get more than 100 billion annual interests, a figure that no financial draconian would be able to bear.
rates, therefore, remain low for a long time, unlike many states will be forced to default.
low rates does not mean happiness operation: means to drastically reduce consumption and limitation of credit required and selected.
The Italian data on employment depends on how one looks at them. It is claimed that the unemployed have grown by about 400 000 units, but merely looking at the statistics.
The figure, indeed, should be doubled for the following reasons:
a) The official data of job seekers fell for the simple fact that many do not search for more officially, trying to get by in everyday life in precarious until the situation evolves. With unemployment in search of the unemployed found new jobs in the official list would have to grow, whereas decreased in the sum. There is no confidence in the potential supply, which often results in the grueling research, in additional costs.
b) The South is more targeted by unemployment, especially women who are most alienated, and are disconnected forcibly from the workforce. The causes are multiple, starting with the great diversity of structural organization of the SMEs in the North and the South
c) have not calculated all the self-employed and casual that the severe recession were left without work. Just think how many tens of thousands of businesses closed their doors last year.
is why we have lost at least 800 000 jobs, which would bring the matter of unemployment well above the 8% official.
to these is very likely that more will be added in 2010 250/300 thousand (conservative estimate), raising the official figure to 10%. The same data, roughly speaking, he has, and will, even Germany, so those countries that have held more than others, for now, the crisis recession.
The deflation is worrying because, typically more than the economy to stagnate at the bottom does not allow a speedy recovery, especially if the public debt, and even those with this company is bound by a burden of high costs.
Japan in the 90s had a similar crisis for over a decade and left rates at almost 0%, otherwise adversely affected, with a rise, the existence of many companies. Only now, two decades later we can see some recovery.
The strategy just does not pay rates do not exist in either the short or medium term.
In economics there are no miracle strategy, especially if everything is based on debt. And the current financial credit has abused Beyond Reason, by covering it with the name " investment" and raising the lever so preposterous.
The " debt is always a cost. Now, for many, is considered an investment. Therefore be calculated for the potential that can be created as an investment and not as a temporary buffer.
This is true for Greece, as in any business, large or small. Just think of Argentina.
The agreement between the EU countries on aid to Greece's place in the foreground the need for a strict central control of the economy, especially on the axis of the governorate French / German.
It is no perceived need for an "economic government " appropriate, able to limit the excesses of certain accounting partner countries. The national freedom of action will therefore be put up, because we will inevitably would involve costs in all others.
The crisis has forced the need to stay within the parameters, high to avoid the worst: it has resorted to deficit spending , especially per reggere la necessaria spesa di sostegno sociale, o per salvare aziende fondamentali nell’apparato strutturale economico/finanziario.
Va, comunque, sottolineato che da alcuni decenni il Debito pubblico continua a crescere nei paesi membri e che il deficit spending è diventato, di fatto, un mero fatto contabile atto a giustificare l’eccesso di spesa contabilmente risultante.
Keynes , alle cui teorie ci si ricollega, in verità non lo intendeva in questo modo. Difatti lui parlava dell’ investment deficit spending , something very different from what is understood today.
He rightly argued that in the presence of a severe economic crisis (as was that of '29) there was a need to "invest for the debt stock, while creating financial deficit - deficit - "to move the economy, restructure, modernize and strengthen the structural system.
Then, once the process began, but had to come from the accumulated debt with the profits generated. Just as you should always do the right relationship investment / profit / yield.
Since the '80s, however, in Western countries, and beyond this basic and simple economic formula has been bypassed for funding the social demands, creating, in fact, the deficit spending eternal ... and exploding all over decency and reasonable limit state deficits.
This happened in almost all nations and now you pay the consequences.
Just think of the Italian debt, its huge amount and how many decades (centuries) of prudent savings and austerity, it would take to reduce it to zero.
The company seems ... almost impossible. However, it was produced in about three decades.
Obama except surprises in the new vote is necessary, since the previous flawed and nothing to procedural errors, resulted in the harbor the dream of many American presidents: the health reform open at all.
In fact it is not right for everyone, even if you can please.
is obvious that this reform will affect the U.S. debt, but it is a priority / right of the person to social equality human, can well be understood as an investment deficit spending, which, however, will need a funding from other areas to avoid becoming a mere deficit spending.
All this to say that there are necessary expenses that, even if they produce deficits, may give the social and economic stability of coverage to citizens in the event of a serious recessionary impact.
Thus, even if simply as a cost, it should be listed as a real and necessary investment in production.
The national deficit will continue to grow in coming years, despite the good intentions of the settlor "economic government" Ue.
We must, however, point to certain items of expenditure as a priority, eliminating other people and make everyone understand the real situation facing.
Gone are the time when, to placate the masses, you squander plenty to get consent (votes), mortgaging not only our future but also that of future generations.
The debt can not be expanded indefinitely, both on farms that in the states.
And the reason is one: one day's interest to finance the coverage will be so high as to no longer be financially viable.
It will force the default.
Just as happened in his time in Argentina, and that is happening now in Greece and that will happen, inevitably, as in other nations if we will proceed along these lines.
the EU economy, thanks to '€, today is so interconnected that the mistakes (and waste) and some fall on all, as the agreement Greece is to demonstrate in the nude figures.
We are not alone either, nor independent. Should take note of what both citizens and governments.
And, if I may, a big part of social responsibility if they should take the opposition, which must cease to ride the general discontent with the challenge always around, trying to demolish the work others to mount the boorish indifference and populism.
The opposition, if he wants to take on the true social role that it must therefore produce a detailed alternative program current deficit spending (and demonstrate to believe), or work with the majority in the state to help everyone understand where you actually paid.
This requires the democratic role of being under government or the opposition.
The crisis, though with slight glimmer of hope is not yet over. The ICJ, however, is about to end.
Many companies are likely to have to close, weighed down by the accounting deficit.
We can not therefore leave the worker without copertura finanziaria di reddito, dopo averlo incentivato a spendere (indebitarsi) per sostenere l’economia.
Il minimo che si possa fare è il prolungare di alcuni mesi, attivando la straordinaria, la stessa CIG.
È un obbligo sociale!
Questo sarebbe un vero e profittevole investment deficit spendig sociale; solo, però, che il tutto venga concepito nel giusto verso da governo, cittadino, maggioranza ed opposizione.
Diversamente sarà, well as this, a simple deficit spending, an act to extend, but not to solve the real problem our present.
Infinity, it should be remembered, is a unit of astrophysics and non-financial.
If you forget the default is inevitable.
0 comments:
Post a Comment