who prophesied in 2008 that the crisis before then economic and financial, would be brief was served.
Sometimes you can see some good signs of recovery. However, these, to be considered valid, must take a continuing nature and not temporary positive peaks, production or GDP, monthly or quarterly.
It is said that the bottom has been touched, because just the slightest thing to slip back down the financial markets, burning, therefore, that wealth of heritage in this lean period would be for companies, both to stimulate consumption and investment.
Although consumption fall inexorably companies produce less, and if it is obvious that those producing less likely to succumb financially sick and healthy to survive through recourse to the IGC.
If the proposed investment is obvious that a certain return on capital can be usefully engaged, but if the outlook is negative it is equally obvious that the risk of burning unnecessarily.
Less production corresponds to more unemployment, more unemployment is equivalent to a drastic reduction in consumption.
In the U.S., but also the EU, unemployment figures remain high in numbers and in disappointing expectations.
analyzing the financial markets over the latter's prestige, it is noted that the Fibonacci lines accentuate continually downward, while the periodic increases tend only to get repetitive and similar peaks in time . They are, therefore, the natural physiological rebounds that big business is allowed not to scuttle the courses too.
This leads to a simple fact: the bags rather than place of investment are now hotbed of speculation, ignoring systematically the fundamentals.
liberalization (globalization) of the market inevitably brings with it the inability of states to control the flow of funds, so even the inability to tax financial income produced on streets other than its own.
And this tax evasion that affects every state significantly, depriving the financial statements of significant resources.
I thought that the remedies so far prepared to resolve and overcome the long economic downturn is only temporary surrogates and ineffective in the medium and long term.
Obama now seems likely, with its staff, to carry out the reduction of tax lever for SMEs, in order to try to revive the economy. They say, well, ready to reduce the tax burden on middle class.
This choice, however, if it is done will not produce the desired results, because consumers are still second best and that should have been run at the beginning of the crisis to give oxygen to the companies that were stopping.
Doing a market still does not make sense because the tax reduction on incomes do not exist without producing any (or minimal) resource. It's just a populist move to attract political support in approaching the middle of the month of November elections office.
The middle class is that in theory has a better chance of spending in a crisis, but we should also be noted that in a recession even the middle class, dramatically reducing their costs.
Ronald Reagan, in his time, making such a tax reduction, also taking advantage of positive results.
It should be noted, however, that the economy of that time was packed and not only in terms current recession and long stagnation.
Similarly, the debt was balanced and not 10 hours as% of GDP and the debt of sovereign States was nearly nonexistent, while progressing at this rate in less than five years this will reach 100% of U.S. GDP .
To give a practical example the annual deficit of U.S. public debt travels on percentages similar to those of Greece and sovereign debt is about emulating the Italian.
The huge capital placed by states or by central banks - Fed e Bce in testa – non hanno risolto il problema recessivo, ma solo sorretto provvisoriamente un sistema finanziario che stava crollando. E tanto Bernanke quanto Trichet hanno constatato che la crisi è sempre attuale e che durerà ancora a lungo pur con alti e bassi.
Tale rimedio, pur se tardivo, è stato utile per scongiurare il collasso globalizzato della finanza e dell’economia. Diversamente sarebbe stato il disastro.
Un po’ ovunque si è proceduto a sostenere istituti finanziari e grosse aziende, pur con modalità diverse da nazione a nazione, onde impedire che l’effetto domino contagious throughout the structural system.
Mai has taken action to correct the setting of financial markets with new rules enabling them to become a place of investment, not speculation.
All this shows the lack of a clear political will to address the underlying problems that triggered the first, and strengthened, then the crisis, leading to recession and stagnation.
Will not exclude the political inability to fully grasp cause and effect of every single move.
Since November last rally of the Indian and Chinese production diminishes inexorably, even if it still holds to be positive.
An economist at the Fall Meeting declared that " the Chinese economy would trawl the world economy . Contestai sentence that states that only the growth of consumption in the United States would favor the recovery, because the mouth of the productivity of the countries of Southeast Asia are mainly Western markets, and if they languish, blocking or slowing down a lot, the same production.
The stimulus of the economy Western has always been based on consumption, or internal or countries brethren.
a safe recovery, can not, therefore, regardless of the boost to consumption in the West, where even families with an income far exceeding the meager income (wages) in developing countries.
say today that the economy of China is the world's second statement is true in general, but it is not practical, because the average income in China is about one tenth of the West.
And where income is low it is committed to survival, with practical consequence that the internal market can not absorb all production for elsewhere.
Many analysts fear that China may soon trigger the mortgage crisis, by far the largest and most dangerous of the U.S. sub prime, detonating cord of the current crisis.
And if that happens it is obvious that the Chinese economy may prove to be a giant with feet of clay.
should also be noted that the Central Bank of China lost to the U.S. mortgage crisis, as well $ 400 billion financial markets, an imposing figure credible and the same communicated.
The current crisis and the remedies are the symbol of the snake biting its tail.
tried every possible remedy to date there is a contraindication to buffer the negative side of a problem, but aggravates the other.
The reduction of fiscal incentives can boost consumption, but depleted resources of the state, creating demand, therefore, further deficit, thus increasing the sovereign debt. Even assuming that it can boost the economy, it is obvious that the results of a monetary return Tax is only in the long term.
The same goes for protecting the welfare and unemployment (benefits or IGC), but further raises the social cost on the budget.
And for these simple reasons, in Italy and in all EU countries, no politician today can be considered a tax reduction.
incentives, where applicable, supported in part consumption, so the productivity and employment, but also forced the city to borrow or burn part of their savings.
aid of the central banks of member to financial firms to collapse the same and have saved the system, but have further extended the debt of both companies to the states.
support EU and the IMF countries at risk of default has saved the 'EU € and the same unit, but it has only postponed the problem without solving it. L '€ remains weak and has in fact devalued against other currencies, while unsafe countries should be supported for years before they can overcome their problems.
This leads to a simple conclusion: there is no uniformity of view and action on the crisis, because at the state level and international level there is the political will to solve the structural problems that created the problem for decades.
And these problems are mainly: the sovereign debt and wild speculation in financial markets, together with the continued growth of private debt.
And today there are too many corporations that heavily influence the states with their capitals, some being more powerful than many nations, can affect both the financial and economic choices sovereign debt that the programmatic and structural economic production.
The Church Centesimus annus , in effect, taxes paid on capital, and now continues on the same line of action, convinced that banks - mostly in Italy for inspiration in the popular Catholic or credit unions - may be of assistance to SMEs to be popular due to micro-credit class.
Microcredit, however, is not solving the problem, but only un tampone provvisorio che può dare ossigeno alle piccole imprese e al ceto popolare, specie a quello rimasto senza lavoro: concede di tirare avanti per un certo periodo, ma non è in grado né di garantire e ridare l’occupazione, né di rilanciare i consumi e quindi la produzione.
Inoltre il credito concesso deve essere restituito e la contrattazione con gli istituti finanziari su tassi e spese non è affatto vantaggiosa per chi ne abbia estremo bisogno, ammesso che le banche rinuncino a determinate garanzie di futura solvibilità.
La Chiesa, inoltre, invoca una nuova classe dirigente politica, destinata negli intenti a sostituire quella attuale, usurata dagli anni, dal malcostume e dal malaffare.
Il creare una nuova aggregazione basata sulle radici cristiane non è il toccasana, pur se in teoria ciò fosse possibile.
Infatti, più che l’uomo cattolico, oggi esiste il personalismo individualista cattolico, che antepone l’interesse individuale, o di classe, all’etica comportamentale. Ciò porta inesorabilmente a far sì che la coscienza individuale ottenebri la visione complessiva di un progetto cattolico sociale di grande respiro: la stessa, per assurdo, che ha prodotto la Centesimus annus , Basing it on personalist phenomenology drift Jansenist.
The global crisis requires a new set of companies, capital and enterprise firmly rooted in the territory, which create a district social and productive, supportive and federalism, not only in a state, but also in the various continents.
To achieve this we must be clear about this - that some have already made - and not only postulates the moral, political or religious, stale and based on outdated conceptions of time and only basic ideology.
Why hope is one thing, develop ideas and projects is another, and achieve another.
serves first and foremost a political flawless able to harness the capital of corporate globalization and to make a new subject for the benefit of the Person / Man, rooted in a stable manner in the territory as a necessary legal entity on a par ' businesses and workers.
This implies a new social compact that it can also reduce the right of the worker, but can guarantee the stability that is lacking today is a bit existential 'everywhere.
An existential stability, however it must be scaled and cleared by the use of disposable consumerism.
That same consumerism that has reduced the family to a simple container, capable of giving unity and stability only on the basis of some interest, which all falling flakes.
And just what has happened in finance and economics.
To create a new political class leader we need a new culture, otherwise you recycle ideas and people who for years have had their day.
The citizen has the disaffected political abstaining natural high it is the thermometer.
However, not only the policy must be updated and rewritten with new politicians extraction Catholic Church but also, perhaps, needs to retire many of its pastors.
The Gens Catholic not only no longer on the political cultural reference, but often do not recognize even more in the Summit Church.